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This collection on American democracy challenges and complements blog posts and opinion pieces that are typical staples of the 24/7 news cycle in the lead up to US elections. You'll find reports about election and campaign administration, voting access and participation, government performance and perceptions, the role of the media in civil society, and more.

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"VOTE!" by Paul Sableman licensed under CC BY 2.0

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Kleptocratic Cooperation in Africa: How Russia and China Undermine Democracy

August 1, 2023

The two essays in this report highlight ways in which two global authoritarian powers, Russia and China, provide surge capacity to kleptocratic networks in Africa. In his essay, "Criminal States, Militarized Criminals, and Profiteers: Russia, Africa, and the Evolving Ecosystem of Transnational Kleptocracy," J.R. Mailey (senior expert at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime) dissects the Wagner Group's illicit activities in key parts of Africa. The Wagner Group's activities are complex, but Mailey zeroes in on the fact that the military support offered to African kleptocrats has little to do with providing security and stability for the African people. Rather it is focused on extracting resources, advancing geopolitical goals, and serving as a brutal cog in the authoritarian mutual support machinery. Even if the ultimate fate of the Wagner Group remains unclear, these trends are unlikely to abate. The opaque economic relationships that the Wagner Group has developed on the continent no doubt are too lucrative for the Kremlin to surrender.China's party state and its proxies are entrenched in corrupt networks in Africa as well. Chinese-linked kleptocratic networks are tapping into likeminded networks on the continent, helping to embolden and empower local kleptocrats seeking to enrich themselves at the expense of their populations. Andrea Ngombet Malewa's (activist and founder of the Sassoufit Collective) essay, "How China Fuels African Kleptocratic Networks: The Case of Congo-Brazzaville," highlights the ways in which Beijing facilitates Congo-Brazzaville's deeply kleptocratic regime. In addition to long-standing Chinese involvement in the timber and extractive industries, Ngombet's analysis spotlights the establishment of a Sino-Congolese Bank for Africa that could allow kleptocrats to bypass the transparency requirements of Western-linked banks, thereby affording opportunities to launder money with impunity. This development has significant implications for accountability norms worldwide.Civil society and independent media seeking to identify and expose kleptocratic networks in Africa face enormous challenges. They often lack the resources, specialized knowledge, and skills needed to track illicit financial flows, and the complex vehicles kleptocrats use to move money around the world. Resourcerich regimes in countries such as Congo-Brazzaville, Sudan, and the Central African Republic already suffer from gaping deficits in accountability and transparency. Despite these odds, both authors identify critical steps to elevate civil society's essential work exposing and combatting kleptocracy.

Ukraine's Anti-Corruption Front: Helping Ukrainians Win the War and the Peace by Having Their Backs against Oligarchy

June 20, 2023

Remarkably, while fighting for their lives against Russian invasion, Ukrainians continue to wage their long internal battle against oligarchy and corruption. Ukraine is midway through this generational struggle, which began on the streets of the Maidan in Kyiv nearly a decade ago. In 2014, after deposing a kleptocratic president whose campaigns were bankrolled by agents of the Kremlin, Ukrainians got to work transforming this post-Soviet oligarchy into a modern European state under the rule of law.Continuing to uproot oligarchy—a critical part of winning the war, rebuilding the country, and preparing for EU accession—will require heavy domestic and foreign support. Anti-corruption must be central in that support. This issue drove Ukrainians into the streets a decade ago. It has topped voters' minds in every Ukrainian election since, helped trigger the largest war in Europe since WWII, and is now motivating Ukrainians to win even at enormous cost. Transparency and accountability mechanisms are essential to reassuring Western taxpayers that their wartime aid to Ukraine is safeguarded. They must also be key conditions of the ambitious reconstruction and European modernization that will inspire freedom's cause globally. Countering corruption is as strategically vital today as the policy of containing communism was in the Cold War.

Government

Nations in Transit 2023: War Deepens a Regional Divide

May 24, 2023

In 2023, Democracy Scores declined in 11 out of the 29 countries in the report, and 7 countries earned improvements. Yet civic activists and democratic leaders continued to strive for better governance across the diverse region.Key Findings:For the 19th consecutive year, democratic governance suffered an overall decline in the region stretching from Central Europe to Central Asia.Democratic institutions stood strong in Ukraine but collapsed further in Russia.On illiberal populism, European Union member states pursued diverging paths.EU hopefuls made democratic progress, but still face daunting obstacles.Autocracies remained trapped in a vicious circle of repression and instability.

Government

Fostering a Fourth Democratic Wave: A Playbook for Countering the Authoriarian Threat

March 28, 2023

Fostering a Fourth Democratic Wave is a joint project between the Atlantic Council and the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC), aimed at catalyzing support for nonviolent pro-democracy movements fighting against authoritarian rule. The project recognizes that civil resistance movements—using tactics such as strikes, boycotts, civil disobedience, and a range of other nonviolent tactics—are one of the most powerful forces for democracy worldwide and therefore central to reversing the last seventeen years of democratic recession.

Civic Participation; Government

Russia’s Influence In Africa: Scenarios To Inform Greater Democratic Resilience

March 13, 2023

This paper is the result of a scenario-building exercise that NDI conducted in October and November 2022 with African, American and European analysts. Through the exercise, NDI sought to better understand potential trajectories of Russian influence in Africa over the next three years (2023–2025), especially developments that could have implications for democracy on the continent. This scenario exercise involved: background papers on various aspects of Russia's engagement in Africa; an online scenario-building workshop with African, American and European analysts; the development of four scenarios, each reflecting a different possible future identified during the online exercise; and further refinement of the scenarios based on consultations with selected analysts. Each of the four scenarios reflects a different combination of two key uncertainties: Russia's capacity to project power in ways that undermine democracy in Africa and the opportunities for Russia to do so.

Political Reforms And Democratic Inertia in West Africa: Context, Implications and the Way Forward

February 17, 2023

With the restoration of democratic order in The Gambia in early 2017, the West Africa region gained the attention of the world as a site of democratic consolidation in Africa. In addition, many West African states have gone through more than one electoral cycle without serious menace or military interregnum. However, despite these democratisations, the region has witnessed setbacks in the face of emerging political developments.According to the 'Freedom in the World Report, 2021', five of the 12 countries with the most significant decline in democracy year-on-year were in West Africa. The Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index for 2020 showed that only Ghana and Cabo Verde still qualify as fully-fledged democracies in the region. This democratic backsliding portends political instability and its attendant economic consequences for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region are worrying.This article will, therefore, ask whether ECOWAS is well-equipped to prevent or manage tenure elongation orchestrated through constitutional and electoral reforms in member states. To do this it will analyse the context of recent political reforms in West Africa, including political reforms induced by ECOWAS; examine implications of recent political reforms to democracy and stability; and suggest policy directions through which ECOWAS and member states can prevent and manage undemocratic retention of power.

Government

Can Democracies Cooperate with China on AI Research? Rebalancing AI Research Networks

January 9, 2023

China looms large in the global landscape of artificial intelligence (AI) research, development, and policymaking. Its talent, growing technological skill and innovation, and national investment in science and technology have made it a leader in AI.This working paper considers whether and to what extent international collaboration with China on AI can endure. In Part I, it presents the history of China's AI development and extraordinarily successful engagement with international research and development (R&D) and explains how this history has helped China become a global leader in the field. Part II shows how China has become embedded in international AI R&D networks, with China and the United States becoming each other's largest collaborator and China also a major collaborator with each of the other six countries participating in FCAI. Part III then provides an overview of the economic, ethical, and strategic issues that call into question whether such levels of collaboration on AI can continue, as well as the challenges and disadvantages of disconnecting the channels of collaboration. The analysis then looks at how engagement with China on AI R&D might evolve.

Freedom on the Net 2022: Countering an Authoritarian Overhaul of the Internet

October 18, 2022

At home and on the international stage, authoritarians are on a campaign to divide the open internet into a patchwork of repressive enclaves.Key Findings:Global internet freedom declined for the 12th consecutive year.Governments are breaking apart the global internet to create more controllable online spaces.China was the world's worst environment for internet freedom for the eighth consecutive year.A record 26 countries experienced internet freedom improvements.Internet freedom in the United States improved marginally for the first time in six years.Human rights hang in the balance amid a competition to control the web.

Media

Digital Dictatorship: Authoritarian Tactics and Resistance in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

October 13, 2022

The use of technology to repress democratic dissent is nothing new. Countries such as China and Russia are widely documented repeat offenders when it comes to deploying authoritarian tactics in digital spaces. Our latest report, Digital dictatorship: authoritarian tactics and resistance in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, explains how a digital dictatorship can emerge and how pro-democracy activists are fighting back.

Free Speech; Media

Dismantling Racism and Militarism in U.S. Foreign Policy

September 17, 2021

The current U.S. national security paradigm robs us of economic resources, corrupts our political system,endangers our lives, and offends our most fundamental moral values.It perpetuates a system that discriminates against, disempowers, disrespects, dehumanizes, and brutalizes Black and brown people and other communities of color. It is an extension of systemic white supremacy at home that relies upon the threat and use of force abroad.Continuing the U.S. quest for global military domination harms not only the people of other countries and the earth we share, but the vast majority of Americans. The Racism-Militarism Paradigm, moreover, harms all of our social, political, and economic institutions, including our democratic institutions, thus weakening our entire society.To peacefully and democratically dismantle this paradigm, we must offer a compelling alternative vision of the U.S. role in the world.

Government